Why the Phillies Should Beat the Yankees.
Written by Rory, Tuesday October 27 2009
Here is a breakdown of the two teams and why the Phillies should emerge victorious.
Starting Pitching
Let's assume that the Yankees and Phillies are both going with a 3 man rotation for the WS. The Yankees will be pitching CC, Burnett, and Pettite while the Phils will pitch Lee, Hamels, and Pedro.
CC vs. Lee- There has been a lot of love given to CC this postseason and rightfully so however Lee has pitched better for the year and the postseason. Lee has a 1.82 FIP this postseason and a 3.11 FIP for the regular season (3.25 AL and 2.83 NL). CC has a 2.44 FIP this postseason and a 3.39 FIP for the regular season. While the difference is not great there is a difference. Edge- Lee
Burnett vs. Hamels- Burnett has pitched much better than Hamels this postseason but Hamels has the edge in the regular season when the sample size is not small. For the postseason Burnett has a 3.97 FIP and a 4.33 FIP for the regular season. Hamels has a postseason FIP of 7.19 (!) but a regular season FIP of 3.72. Edge- Hamels (based on regular season, not 3 game postseason sample size)
Petttitte vs. Pedro- This is probably the closest matchup and the toughest to call because Pedro only pitched half of the season. Pedro has a postseason FIP of 2.67 and regular season FIP of 4.28. Pettite has a postseason FIP of 3.36 and regular season FIP of 4.15. Pedro may have more in the tank because he only pitched for half of a season but on the other hand Pettitte has the advantage of being a lefty against a lefty dominante lineup. Edge- Pettite (only slightly though)
Defense- The Phillies have the definite edge here. Their combined UZR/150 for the year is at a nice 5.8 while the Yankees' UZR/150 is a below average -4.7. This is also with Jeter's surprisingly good defensive year. Another surprising fact Ryan Howard had a UZR/150 of 1.4 while Tex's was a below average -2.4.
Bullpen- I won't go into each individual for the bullpen but I will judge as a whole based on the regular season. The Phillies' bullpen had a FIP for the regular season of 4.17 while the Yankees' FIP sat at 4.33. Not a huge difference here. I am going to call it a wash because of Lidge's uncertainty and Mariano being Mariano.
Offense- This is a tough call because both teams have great offenses. The Yankees were tops in the majors this year with a .366 wOBA and the Phillies came in 5th with a .340 wOBA. 1B is very close with Tex's wOBA of .402 and Howard's at .393. 2B is not close with Utley's sitting at .402 while Cano's is at .370. At SS Jeter blows Rollins out of the water with a wOBA of .390 vs. .316. 3B is another blow out with A-Rod sitting at .405 and Feliz at .302. In RF the Phils have the edge with Werth at .382 and Swisher at .375. In CF Victorino's .354 has the edge over Gardner/Melky's .337/.331. LF also goes to the Phils with Ibanez's .379 slightly topping Damon's .376. The Yanks get C with Posada's .378 topping Ruiz's .337. The Yanks will also take the DH spot with Matsui's .378 topping (presumably Ben Fransisco who would play LF and Ibanez DH) Fransisco's .341. The Phils will presumably get the edge in P for NL parks because they have more experience although CC is no slouch at the plate. Edge- Yankees
Manager- This is a tougher call because it is difficult to comment on managers when one doesn't watch them for the whole year. Girardi has made many questionable calls this postseason and has been overmanaging games. Manuel is presumably making a mistake by possibly pitching Pedro in Game 2 over Hamels, the superior pitcher. I'm going to give the edge to Manuel because I've seen many more mistakes from Girardi this offseason and I feel like in the NL park he will without a doubt overmanage the games.
Conclusion- I think that a superior starting staff, defense, and managing will give the Phils the edge over the Yankees' superior offense.
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