Vegas Oddsmakers, How Do They Do It?
Written by JiWaassss, Wednesday December 23 2009
If you have been a consistant sports watcher over the years, then most of you understand how point spreads work whether you gambled on games or not. Basically, to sum it up real fast, oddsmakers in Vegas sit around and decide who should be favored in each game, and by how much. Through intense statistical analysis and with the help of lengthy mathematical formulas, oddsmakers tend to be outrageously accurate, to the point where one has to question how it's physically possible to be so on point, day in and day out.
I was having a conversation with a friend of mine, who is an avid sports gambler, regarding the point spread on a particular game. The Chicago Bulls were visiting Madison Square Garden and the New York Knicks last night, with the Knicks as 6 point favorites. After the first half the Knicks were up by 22. Chicago betters have turned the TV off already and switched to Jersey Shore. As the second half progressed, the Bulls inched closer and closer, until their inevitable run in the 4th quarter cut the Knicks lead down to 1 with 2:40 on the clock. The group who bet on the Knicks thought that Vegas just sucker punched them yet again. The Knicks came out of a timeout to hit some big shots, and with a few seconds remaning, of course, the Knicks were up by 5. A meaningless foul was then committed on Chicago, to put Knicks star Danillo Gallinari on the line for 2 free throws, which he smoothly converted, and the Knicks won the game by 7, covering the spread by 1 and causing all and every indivudual who bet on the Bulls to throw their remote controls in disgust, and contemplate why they have the worst luck on the planet. (This is a weekly ritual for me)
About 65% of the betting population took the Bulls in this one, figuring that if the Knicks are favored, especially by a generous 6 points, that why not take the points in a game in which the Bulls have no right losing in the first place. But with the result ending in an 88-81 victory for NY, you wonder what the oddsmakers were saying after the final buzzer sounded. I can just picture some fat slob eating cheeto's, (puffed, not crunchy) saying, "We're good, arn't we", and sporting a half smile that represents a murderer's face after the jury decided that the homicide was really a suicide.
I've been betting on sports for about 8 years now, and just like the elevator business, it has its up and downs. After winning 2 games in a row, you really believe that you have figured out the system, you can interpret spreads, and pick winners. Which is just what those fat slobs in Vegas want you to think. And the bottom line is, those slobs are better than you. just accept it. The best sports handicappers in the world, the so-called sportsbetting experts who people give their money to to make wagers for them- the best ones have winning percentages of about 58%. That's best case scenario! If i was at the top of my class with a 58% average, you would think I was taking a class with a bunch of chimps.
Thats just it. The sports betting world, myself included, are a bunch of monkeys trying to learn and master something new. It's not about the money, most people who bet on sports don't bet because of the money, but about the rush and jolt you get when you pick a winner and get rewarded for it. You feel like "the man", the guy who can make money off being that knowledgeble sports guy. People actually come to me for sportsbetting advice, even with my winning percentage being closer to 45%. Ya know what the best advice I have for them? (and its not stop betting, thats the easy, not-fun way out). I tell them to find another sports betting companion, someone who bets consistantly, and ask them who they take in every game. Then simply, take the opposite. If they bet everyday, which plenty of people do, take the opposite of them for a week, month, or even a year. I guarentee you, that even though your sportsbetting companion may have winning days, he will NOT have winning months or years. Anytime someone tells you they have been hot lately, ask them what they were like before they were hot. Follow up, see when there hot streak ends and how long their new cold streak will last for.
There are a lot of different takes on this subject. Mine is pretty simple. Nobody wins. Don't let it become a problem financially for you either, something I have not touched upon. Charles Barkley, who has claimed to have lost over 10 million dollars sportsbetting, said it best, " It's not a problem, when you can afford it". I'll leave off with my sportsbetting motto for all of you gambling adicts out there,..."Be a winner, take the opposite of a loser".
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