This is a vent on forecasting!
Written by John David, Saturday January 17 2009
OK, so today is saturday the 17th of January. I am in Southern Cal. I am looking online at several different forecasts and live cams to check the swell. Forecast says we would wake up today with waves pushing 7-8'. SO not the case. They are off by about 12-24 Hours. If you look at one of the global swell models like Lola, it is obvious. All the blobs off swell are still a few hundred miles off coast and/or North.
So if I can see that, why are all the forecasts wrong?! What are the forecasters talking about. I am currently in San Diego awaiting the waves but to my shigrin, I see that they are barely showing in SB and Ventura. So I will be lucky if I get some sunset surf, otherwise skunked completely. So actually this is like a Sunday arrival. That is a day late guys, and it's not because the swell slowed down.
So anyways I surfed Cardiff Reef this morning. And let me tell you the rest of the world thought there was supposed to be a swell. It was depressingly crowded. So, all I can hope is that everone gets sick of waiting by this afternoon, and Blacks has a few empty peaks....
BUT, there is an emotional apect to this. I'm restless in the night, thinking about all the thumping barrels I'm gonna get, how I'll time my meals so I have the most energy for the xtra long sessions, I mind surf on my hour drive south, and then see the uttermost flatness on the ocean's surface. Boom! Heart sinks. By the time the swell does get here I'll be so over it. I'll take closeouts on the head just to punish myself for having false expecations, almost drowning.....on purpose! Maybe next time I'll remember the gasps for air.
But in reality, I'll make the trek whether it's good or not. Cuz' I'm a sucker for any sort of surf.
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2 comments
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Oh Dr. Surf I do feel you. But I gotta disagree. First, I actually have a written apology from a forecaster saying the swell arrival for Socal was prematurely stated on arrival. Second, I was saying that at midday (when I wrote it)the swell was not 6' or close to it, like stated. Yes, I was staring at a famous long period spot. Third, I wouldn't complain if forecasting was right on, ever, ever. Fourth, I did get some good long period shacks by Sunset,OK a little earlier. BUT it was 18 hours later than predicted. Yes I should have stayed on the global swell model rather than listened to the interpretation of it. I learned. But if you think there is no controversy over how poorly that was forecasted, even check SURFERmag.com. It was hyped up too early. I like the fire, keep it coming!
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Too bad you don't understand what happens during the beginning stages of a long period WNW swell. On Saturday the long period spots were well overhead while most other areas that don't focus long period were still flat, until the rest of the shorter period waves filled in on Sunday. I know. I scored. But if the surf forecasters in the know about this actually communicated very specifically about which spots would be picking up the long period swell energy on Saturday, then you would be complaining and venting that the forecasters sent everyone to specific spots so it was too crowded right? Quite honestly I would prefer that the people not in the know think the forecast was wrong, versus spoon feeding everyone who don't want to do any work researching for themslves. Sorry you missed out but next time maybe do a little wsork yourself.