Texans’ fans need a reality check
Written by Greg Shelley, Tuesday December 22 2009
Somewhere in the optimism of the finish to the 2008 season and the production of the offseason many Texans' fans got deluded with the notion that they should be a playoff team. The more realistic hope should have been the desire to have a winning season. While the Texans still have a shot at both, you wouldn't know it from all the chatter around Houston these days.
After the close win over St. Louis, many Houston Texans fans are showing some additional angst toward their team, a team that has managed only a 7-7 record after starting the season 5-3. The majority of the disappointment began with an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss to the Tennessee Titans at home at a time when optimism was beginning to bloom plentiful. The Texans had just the week before made a strong showing against the Colts in Indy in a 20-17 loss, a contest that left many in the sports world feeling that the Texans could actually contend with the big guys.
Well, the anxiety that followed the Titans game began to give way to anger when the Texans lost a third straight game, this time at home to the Colts. They followed that with a poor showing against another division rival, the Jaguars which culminated in their fourth straight loss. If the Texans had managed to win just one of those four games, they would be looking at an opportunity for a 10-win season and a much stronger likelihood of making the playoffs. Instead, the Texans are just holding onto hopes for their first winning season and a very long shot at the playoffs. Because of those four straight losses, even the wins are being criticized, especially last week’s win against the lowly Rams.
Still, here we are in late December and Houston fans are actually talking about playoff possibilities, something that has not happened since the inception of the team. While it does seem like the Texans have been stuck in the mud these last three years, because this is in fact the third straight year in which they have a 7-7 record after week 15, the team has actually gotten better in each of the last three years. At the end of last year, most fans seemed to limit their expectations to the idea of just having a first winning season, and that remains a reasonable possibility.
Unfortunately, because the team finished the 2008 season with a 5-1 run and they made so many seemingly positive moves in the off season, many people seemed enamored with the loftier idea of making the playoffs. The Texans are instead sitting at .500 yet again and today we are listening to all sorts of people calling into sports talk calling for Coach Kubiak’s job despite coming off a second straight win and being in position still to secure the franchise’s first winning season. The Texans have the same or better record than 10 of the 16 teams in the AFC, and they play in the division with the most wins in the entire league (35), the only division that has no team below .500.
Simply put, the AFC is a tough place to be, especially this year. Collectively, they are 35-25 against the NFC. That means the NFC is only 25-35 against the AFC this year. The Texans have the same record as the Pittsburgh Steelers despite the toughness and parity of the AFC. On top of all that, Houston has an honest chance at making the playoffs with two more wins, and seemingly everyone wants Kubiak out, as if a new coach is going to instantly turn this team into an elite unit in one year. After all the improvements Coach Kubiak and GM Rick Smith have made in the last four years, any new coach would certainly have to consider himself lucky to inherit such a team, such a piece of work to begin with. Kubiak and Smith certainly didn’t get such a nice fortune when they began. Regardless, besides the fact that a coaching change is statistically most likely to result in an initial downward spiral, there are several other good reasons why Kubiak and Smith deserve another year.
Here in 2009, the Texans have won bigger and lost smaller. In their seven losses this year, they have lost by an average of 7.14. That figure was 12.57 in 2008. In their seven victories this year, they have won by an average of 13 points. That figure was 9.14 in 2008. Likewise, if you look at the charts below, you can see that statistically, the defense and offense have gotten better in every category other than the small difference in offensive yards per game. They are better than the 2008 team in points per game on both sides of the ball, and they have a point differential of +3 this year as opposed to -1.5 in 2008.
|
2009
|
Yards/G
|
Rank
|
PPG
|
Rank
|
2008
|
Yards/G
|
Rank
|
PPG
|
Rank
|
|
Offense
|
377.4
|
7th
|
23.4
|
11th
|
Offense
|
382.1
|
3rd
|
22.9
|
17th
|
|
Defense
|
322.7
|
12th
|
20.4
|
18th
|
Defense
|
336.6
|
22nd
|
24.6
|
27th
|
Of course, many different people have proclaimed over the years that “Stats are for losers,” and most of the time they mean that in the spirit of the record being the only stat that matters. Ultimately, that is true; however, we do need stats to measure growth or regression particularly when the record remains the same, and the stats right now show that the Texans are still growing and getting better. Firing the guy who has been key to their improvements is not likely the best possible answer to the problems with the win-loss record.
These next two games are perhaps the most important games of Kubiak’s tenure. They are in essence playoff games against two pretty good teams in Miami and New England, both of which are still fighting for their own playoff spots. If the Texans can win these two games, they can show that they can indeed win big games. If they can win these next two games, they can finally say that they are a winning team. That is definitely a situation that warrants another shot for Kubiak and his crew.
On the other hand, if they lose one or both of these games, then the Texans fans who are already complaining better be wary of getting what they are asking for. Historically, odds are they will get another losing season if the Texans change coaches. As a Texans’ fan from the beginning of the franchise, I know it’s hard to keep hope alive given all the horrors we have witnessed over the years. Still, what we as Texans fans should be hoping for and rooting for is for the Texans to show up collectively and win these next two games against the odds. That will send the team into 2010 as a winner for the first time, a situation that would then make it reasonable to expect, even demand a playoff berth next year, especially if they end up on the outside looking in at 9-7 this year.
Tags:
Recent Texans Articles
- Texans UDFA rookie WR says he’s the ‘next Andre Johnson’
- Texans Lose Another Key Player
- Texans Lose Key Defender
- Texans Release OT Eric Winston [TWEET]
- Texans Can’t Sign Everybody
- Houston Texans May Catch a Break
- Texans to Bench Matt Schaub?
- Wade Phillips Leaving Houston?
- Texans Win First Ever Playoff Game
- Houston Texans Set to Handle Yet another Set Back
Leave a comment
Not So Fast! To publish your comment, you have to login
Not Registered? Register now as it only take 20 seconds!
Click here to browse
2 comments
Please sign in to rate!
Thanks B-Dub. The additional math lesson is free and I initially thought it was good for emphasis, but later realized it also serves to explain that there are only two conferences in the NFL. (Who knew!??) Hopefully, I haven't offended the readership with the obvious.
Please sign in to rate!
Nice article Greg. I especially love the math lesson. "The AFC is 35-25 against the NFC this year. That means the NFC is 25-35 against the AFC." You just don't get deep statisitical analysis like that anymore my friend.