A series preview of the four game series between the Rays and the Red Sox starting tonight (April 30th).
Tonight, when the Red Sox begin a four games series against the division rival, and current AL champion Rays, they’ll be looking for better results than the one win in their first series brought them.The last time they played the Rays this season, they started out strong with a win in game one in which the Sox looked like the league champions of old, and then went on to lose 6 of their next 7 games as Sox batters struggled to connect, only managing 24 runs over that span.
Game One
Opening up game one for the Sox will be ace Josh Beckett, who pitched the opening game vs. the Rays, winning in convincing fashion with 10 strikeouts and only one earned run allowed.Since then Beckett has struggled a bit, in his next three starts watching his ERA balloon to 6.00, and striking out only 14 more batters during that span.Over the past few years Beckett has pitched fairly well at Tropicana Field (1.93 ERA past three years) however that solid performance does not necessarily translate into wins, as he has a 1-2 record in 4 starts.Conversely, Matt Garza, who will be pitching for the Rays tonight seems to fair well against the Sox.Againsthis AL East rivals he posts a 3.86 ERA and a 3-1 record over the course of his career.Watch out for Ellsbury, who is batting .438 lifetime vs. Garza, and is 10-27 in the last 6 games (he also has 4 steals throughout those 6 games, including the famous steal of home vs. the Yankees).Other than Ellsbury, the only Red Sox batter who has seen any kind of success against Garza is Ortiz, who while batting only 2-12 lifetime vs. Garza watched both those hits soar over the fence for homeruns.All things considered, my best guess for this game is that despite the recent surge in power Boston’s bats have seen, and the slump the Rays are in (losing 11 of the past 15 after starting the season 2-1 in their first series vs. the Sox), the Rays may find their stroke against Beckett and at home.Although the majority of the past few games have showed both teams posting low run totals, it seems the Sox always come up on the short end of that stick in Tropicana Field with Beckett pitching.Look for a low scoring affair that the Rays come out on top in. (As much as I am loathe to say it).
Game Two
Game 2 features two young pitchers facing off against each other, Justin Masterson for the Red Sox, who has struggled vs. the Rays posting a 7.11 ERA and losing the one game he’s started against them.The Rays will play behind Andy Sonnanstine, another second year pitcher who has been a special kind of bad for the Rays this year, with a 7.78 ERA and an 0-3 record.In fact, throughout his career thus far he’s not even .500 at home, with an 8-9 record in 25 starts.Bats I’d keep an eye on in this game on the TampaBay side include BJ Upton, Pena, and Gabe Gross, who have all popped homeruns against Masterson although between the three they’ve faced him an average of 6 times each.They’ve also collectively hit him for 5 doubles.From the Boston side, Varitek, Drew, and Lowell have all seen a great deal of success against Sonnanstine, with all of them batting over .350 vs. the young pitcher.At the end of the day, I’d look for the Sox to pull out the win, although Masterson struggled last year against the Rays, well let’s face it, he pretty much struggled against everybody last year.He seems to have turned things around so far this year as he currently sports a 2.7 ERA and a 2-0 record in 2 starts.
Game Three
In Game Three we see a stark contrast in pitchers, with the 42 year old, 17 year veteran Tim Wakefield facing off against second year pitcher Jeff Niemann, who has a grand total of 6 starts under his belt.Having never faced a Boston batter before, there’s very little statistical history to look at.What we do know is that this season Niemann has started 4 games and is currently even at 2-2, with a 4.43 ERA.He’s won his past two starts, allowing just 1 and 3 runs in each, so Boston bats will have to figure him out quickly.Wakefield has been strong as of late, however with temperatures into the 80’s predicted for his game against the Rays, the knuckleball may not be quite as effective as normal, so he’ll have to rely on solid defense behind him as he’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher.After a slow start, Red Sox batters have woken up as of late, putting up 42 runs over the past 6 games vs. the 37 they managed over their first 9, so with any luck they’ll be able to overcome any runs the knuckleball in the heat allows.Beyond the weather, with Gabe Kaplar, Akinori Iwamura, and Carlos Pena posting over .300 batting averages against Wakefield in the past, so Red Sox batters should be prepared to step up if Wakefield doesn’t continue with the success he’s had recently (1.86 era and .97whip so far this season).Look for the Sox to take this game, as Boston batters pummel an inexperienced pitcher.
Game Four
After four starts Penny’s record of 2-0 doesn’t reflect the shaky start he’s had thus far as a part of the Boston lineup, as he’s given up nearly a run every inning (8.66 ERA).In addition to that, of the 5 batters Penny has faced in the Rays’ lineup, 4 average better than .300 against him.Only one has faced him a significant amount of times however, Pat Burrell, who has a .289 average and 3 homeruns against him, a fact that doesn’t bode well for Penny.Although .289 isn’t that high, one must bear in mind that Burrell has a lifetime .257 average, and thus a .289 average reflects poorly upon Penny.On the other side of the inning, TampaBay pitcher James Shields has had his share of struggles against Sox batters, as Drew, Lowell, and Ortiz all carry over .350 averages against him.This game may be a high scoring event that eventually sees TampaBay come out on top.
At the end of the series…
Look for the Sox and Rays to split this four game series.I don’t expect either team to dominate the series, and it should be interesting to watch the two AL East opponents battle it out.Seeing the way TampaBay has started out the season (with an abysmal 8-14 record-a .364 winning percentage) many wonder if they are for real this season, or if last season was a flare up, a fluke.The next 13 days should help us answer that question, as they face AL East opponents the Red Sox (7 games), the New York Yankees (2 games), and the Baltimore Orioles (4 games).They’ll be at home for the next 6 games, and then travel to face each opponent at their home stadium.If they can come out of the next 2 weeks with a .500 record over that span I’d be amazed.If not, I’ll be tempted to write them out of the AL East picture, particularly given the surprise start of the Toronto Blue Jays, who out of nowhere are suddenly competing in the AL East.If nothing else the next few weeks will be interesting.
And now the Sox have lost game 2 as well. It seems very odd that it has continued that the Rays can only beat the Sox regularly while the Sox can beat everyone else regularly. Very odd.
Wow. That's really all I have to say. WOW. 13-0...who saw that coming? Absolutely an unreal game, and congrats to the Rays, but seriously, I guess one team helped me out with the low scoring affair, lol, just was the wrong team from my point of view. What an unbelievable night Garza had, hats off to him. It's amazing, it's like the one team in the league the Rays can beat is the Sox. Let's hope for a better showing from both the Boston pitchers and batters tomorrow.
Written by Luke, Thursday April 30 2009
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And now the Sox have lost game 2 as well. It seems very odd that it has continued that the Rays can only beat the Sox regularly while the Sox can beat everyone else regularly. Very odd.
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Wow. That's really all I have to say. WOW. 13-0...who saw that coming? Absolutely an unreal game, and congrats to the Rays, but seriously, I guess one team helped me out with the low scoring affair, lol, just was the wrong team from my point of view. What an unbelievable night Garza had, hats off to him. It's amazing, it's like the one team in the league the Rays can beat is the Sox. Let's hope for a better showing from both the Boston pitchers and batters tomorrow.