Peeved About the Peavy Hype
Written by B-Dub, Friday June 05 2009
The hottest name on the trade market right now is San Diego starting pitcher, Jake Peavy.
Hell, Peavy was rumored to have been traded to the Cubs a few times before the season and actually was traded to the Chicago White Sox before refusing to waive his no-trade clause. Must be Chicago.
Actually Peavy turned down that trade because he supposedly wants to remain in the National League. To be more specific, he wants to be on a National League team in the western half of the United States, but only on a contending team. Yes, that really does narrow it down to just the Los Angeles Dodgers. Just because that is where he wants to go doesn't mean that's where he will go, even with that no-trade clause.
Peavy is on the market because the Padres owner wants to shed some salary to sell the team. Peavy is the highest paid player, so he's on the market. Must be great to be a Padres fan these day huh? Baseball shouldn't be like this, but with a commissioner who is nothing more than a puppet for the owners, this is what you get.
My Philadelphia Phillies have been rumored to be after Peavy for weeks. The season-ending injury to #2 starter Bret Myers has only made the cries for the team to give up anything for Peavy that much louder. The thing is, I don't want Peavy. It's not that I don't think Peavy is a good pitcher, it's just that I don't think he's as good as the hype.
Yes, I know he won the NL Cy Young award in 2007. Yes, I know he's a workhorse who has pitched over 200 innings and had over 200 strikeouts in 3 of the last 4 years. I know all these things, yet I still don't want him and can't understand why everyone thinks he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's good, but he's not great. I can prove it.
Jake Peavy is a product of his home ballpark. That home ballpark is one Petco Park and it is huge. It is baseball's best ballpark for pitchers, bar none. The left and right field corners are average at 334 and 322 feet respectively. The difference at Petco is the long power alleys in right and left center field. Each is 402 feet. For an extreme flyball pitcher like Peavy, this is a Godsend. It also helps to explain his extreme splits home and away.
Before the Padres played in Petco, starting in 2004, they played in Qualcomm Stadium (previously Jack Murphy Stadium). They shared it with the NFL's San Diego Chargers, but the dimensions there for baseball were almost as big as they are at Petco Park. I bring this up because Peavy's first two years in the majors were spent in Qualcomm. He started 21 games there, giving up 10 HRs in 136 innings, with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (Walks + hits per innings pitched). He has started 88 games in Petco Park, giving up 41 HRs in 584 innings, with a 2.68 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
That means that Peavy's home road splits are as follows:
Games IP H HR K BB ERA WHIP
Home 109 720 573 51 771 208 2.79 1.08
Away 101 614 575 84 569 223 3.84 1.30
Boys and girls those are some extreme home and away splits for a pitcher who many consider to be a stud #1 pitcher. The number of games is almost identical, home and away, so we can fairly compare them. Let's take a look at those numbers shall we? The ERA is over a run lower in the big home ballpark. That's significant. The reason for that can be found in the other numbers. He has given up fewer hits, walks and far less HRs at home while striking out far more batters. Plus, the slugging percentage against him at home is .263, but on the road it is .429. The reason for all of that is simple. Knowing that Petco is huge, Peavy challenges hitters more in his home ballpark. He knows that all the flyballs that he gives up are more likely to be outs at home.
If you're still awake after all those mind-numbing statistics, I have just a few more to back up my assertion that Peavy is a product of his home ball park. In 2008 Petco Park ranked 29th in hits and 30th (last) in HRs. Since it opened in 2004, Petco Park has had the fewest runs per game scored every year, but two. Somehow Shea was last in 2006 and Petco was 28th out of 30 in 2004. Also, Petco has had the fewest or next to fewest HRs per game every year since 2004, except for 2006 again. That, my friends, is the very definition of a "pitchers park".
Finally, I don't think Peavy has the necessary attitude to be a stud pitcher on a contender. I already mentioned how he's afraid to pitch anywhere but in the National League West, home of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball. But do you know what his stats are in the post season, when the pressure is really on and the true aces, like NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels excel? Peavy gets his ass handed to him. In two playoff games he has a record of 0-2 in 9 2/3 innings pitched, with a 12.10 ERA. That's not going to help anybody once the playoffs start.
So while I will admit that Peavy is a damn good pitcher, he sure as hell isn't a great one away from the pitcher friendly atmosphere of spacious Petco Park. And that's my whole point. The team that trades for Peavy won't be getting Petco as part of the deal. What a team will be getting is a very good pitcher, but not a dominant one. The problem with that is that the Padres are asking for any team's top one or two prospects in any trade for Peavy. I don't think he's worth that and the numbers back me up.
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15 comments
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I meant to say "I don't care what everyone else says about you". I hate when I screw up, you'd think I'd be used to it by now...
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You da man B-Deezy, I don't what everyone else says about you. Duck the Fodgers! Say it with me y'all! Beat LA!
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Yes Tigersfan, we can all agree that we hate the Annoying LA fans. MC Hammer, I mean Homer, is OK since he's from SF not LA.
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And screw any L.A team. That is agreed upon across the board.
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With peavy we just have to let him go to a different ballpark and see what he's made of. He complains, gets hyped up, and chokes in big games. Yeah I'd hate it if he ended up with a team i liked, like the phillies, but sometimes pitchers need to be humbled or have their true colors shown.
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MC Homer Simpson, Zito is actually much better this year. He's not worth that fat contract he signed, but he's better. He needs to go back to the AL where that 12 to 6 curve of his is effective. Lincecum was the man last year, but it looks like Halladay is the man this year. I agree that wins are an overrated stat, but Halladay's stats are great across the board and I want him in Philly. I hate the Dodgers, but they're the best team in MLB without Manny, so when he comes back they'll be scary. The Phils are another good SP away from a repeat Championship. Besides, we can't let a team from LA win anything dammit.
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Kerri, Peavy actually trashed Citizens Bank Park back in 2007. Just another example of why he isn't a big game pitcher like Cole Hamels. You can't be worried about WHERE you're pitching and you have to have a short memory to be an elite pitcher.
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I have always thought Peavy was overrated, glad to see the stats to back it up. Imagine he pitched a whole season at Citizens Bank park? That could be scary for homerun totals.
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Dub, you actually think I'm offering Zito? I apologize to you for that embarrassing thought. I might not be Einstein, but I'm fully aware that no big league club will take his contract, I'm not THAT delusional. I was actually referring to the hype he had after he won the Cy Young, as in the comment Nolan wrote. BTW, I'm pretty happy with Lincecum and Cain instead of Halladay. Halladay is a great pitcher, but I'm not so sure he's the clear cut best "by far", even this year. If Halladay is that great, with the runs Toronto scores, why doesn't he have 12 or 13 wins? (Cain is 7-1 on a Giants team who is lucky to get 2 runs any given night.) Good luck with trying to get him (Doc Halladay) though, hold you're breath will ya? About the Giants and these fat contracts they keep throwing around to every guy who had a good season ten years ago, like Renteria too, I, unfortunately, can't make the decisions for Brian Sabean, GM, but I sure can call for his head. I don't agree with any of them, but what can I do?
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Avenger in Chief I acknowledge that you have a point about the Padres never having great hitters, but Peavy's splits are so pronounced that it's hard to ignore. And MC Homer, you can keep Zito and that fat contract you gave him. How's that huge contract you guys gave to Aaron Rowand working out too?
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MC Homer, I'll tell you who I want....Roy Halladay. He is the best pitcher in baseball this year by far. I would give up any two prospects not named Drabek in our farm system to get him. Toronto can't compete with the big boys in the AL East this year, so they should trade him and rebuild. None of the other pitchers out there excited me, but I fully expect the Phillies to trade for a #3 SP like they have the last few years with Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton. I can't really argue with that though, since we won the World Series last year. Phils just went 5-2 on West Coast trip and got a Quality Start in every single game. Antonio Bastardo for Rookie of the Year?
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I love Jake Peavy and will agree that he is a bit over-hyped. I sometimes call him "Big Game Jake" because of his tendency to no-show when it counts--playoffs as well as during his Cy Young year. During 2007 he blew his two most critical games of the season....we missed the playoffs by 1 game. However.....Dude isn't afraid! He's ferocious on the mound and it makes it pretty entertaining to watch. He's in a tough spot though because he's an Alabama boy who's been with the Padres since 2002. The Padres finally committed to him long term so he moves his whole family to SD....now they want to move him. I've never been to Philadelphia but I imagine that it has a much bigger "city" vibe than San Diego. Our downtown is tiny and very, very, mellow. Because Jake took a below market contract at the time, he got his no-trade clause and really he's entitled to use it to place himself in the best position possible. In summation not scared. I think Petco definitely (Q/The Murph was a neutral to slightly hitter friendly park---see Phil Nevin's 41HRs in 2001 or Greg Vaughn's 50 in '98)inflates his numbers but there's another item for the analysts to consider. A good part of Petco finishing near the bottom in HRs allowed each year is that our front office has done its best to provide fans with very few legitimate HR hitters over the last few seasons. Adrian Gonzalez can hit it out because he's legit...and I've seen Ryan Howard and Chase Utley destroy our park (Ibanez did alright this week too). I think you have to adjust Petco's numbers to a degree because we just don't have many real HR hitters....and we get it 81/yr. Jake is high strung, maybe too emotional, and definitely presses because he knows he won't get too much offense. But I guarantee that if you put him in the rotation for a team like the Phillies, where he doesn't have to sweat his offense maxing out at 2 runs/game, he'll do well. He has stuff and he can go out and K 13 guys on any given day. He might not be worth a team's top two prospects....but I sure hope that's what we get from a desperate team in July. Peace Padre Fan p.o.v.
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cough, cough, ZITO...
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It's amazing how much hype a pitcher gets once he wins the Cy Young award.
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AT&T Park in San Francisco may have something to say about Petco being the best pitchers park. I'm not saying it is the best, but is in the arguement for sure (I've been to both). Nice homework Dub. Did anyone ever think "what if Peavy doesn't want to leave San Diego?" I'm sure he wants to win, but the city is amazing and the weather is even better than that. Question for you B-Dizzle: so since you don't want the overrated Peavy, what pitcher do you suggest they trade for? I don't think Hamels/Blanton/Happ will get it done, do you? It's an honest question, I'm not trying to mock you (like I sometimes do, all in fun, of course). I don't know the Philly situation very well, so a little insight would be nice.