No Seymour, No Super Bowl
Written by RandolphC, Sunday September 06 2009
The clock ticks down to zero. The crowd erupts. The NFL field crew assembles the stage. The Lombardi Trophy is passed around as shimmering red, silver, and blue confetti fills the air.
Boy, the experts are right. This Madden 10 is the most realistic Madden game ever!
Anyone hoping for another Patriots Super Bowl celebration this season, that might be the only method to see one.
The expectations for New England had fluctuated from the end of last season to today. But the latest move is the most damaging to the hopes of what is considered a championship-caliber team.
A day after the Pats trimmed the roster down to 53 players, New England trumped the tight ends exchange from Saturday by trading five-time Pro Bowler defensive lineman Richard Seymour.
I hate using military terms when discussing sports, but the Patriots dropped another bomb this off-season that no one saw coming.
It started with trading QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel to Kansas City for a second round draft pick. Next was trading out of the first round of the NFL Draft. The DE Derrick Burgess trade added a little spice, as did signing and later releasing QB Andrew Walter. Throw in two retirements (safety Rodney Harrision and LB Tedy Bruschi) and the Pats led the league in headlines.
But trading Seymour easily is biggest move. For a player that was everything the Patriots wanted from a defensive lineman over his eight years with the team that drafted him, a front office decision ended his tenure with the team.
Head coach Bill Belichick says the 2011 first round draft pick they received from Oakland was an offer too good to pass up. We’ll see if that holds true because Seymour was the sixth overall pick in 2001. Based on his career, Big Sey met the value, possibly exceeded the value, of the selection the Pats got him with.
New England is banking on the Raiders continuing the new tradition, a commitment to excrement, and remaining one of the worst teams in the league. While the chances are great Oakland will be a bad team in 2010, this is a league where Miami followed a 1-15 season with an 11-5 record, a division title, and a playoff berth.
The national media thinks the Patriots robbed the Raiders again, but they only see Seymour from his listing on the roster. Believing continued suck-cess by Oakland, the experts think getting a first round pick for an aging player is a coup for New England. They see Richard will turn 30 in October, and they assume Seymour’s play will start heading downhill. To get a possible top-10 pick two years from now for a player that had his best days is a great move.
That’s if you believe Seymour’s play will decline. New England got significant contributions from veteran free agents as old and older than Seymour: DE Bobby Hamilton (29 when he signed with the Pats), NTs Ted Washington (35) and Keith Traylor (35), safety Rodney Harrison (31), and LBs Roman Phifer (33) and Junior Seau (38) all played big roles in getting the Patriots to four Super Bowls since 2001 and winning three of them.
30 is the pumpkin number for running backs. Defenders excel beyond that. Ask Miami LB Joey Porter (31 last year) if the Pittsburgh Steelers was right about him.
The truth is Seymour is a five-time Pro Bowler coming off a great season where he was arguably the defense’s best player and without a doubt the best sack artist on a team that severely lacked a pass rush. Getting eight sacks from a 3-4 defensive lineman is very uncommon. Only two DTs had more sacks than Seymour last year, and they edged him by just a half sack each (Tennessee’s Albert Haynesworth and Minnesota’s Kevin Williams - both were selected as Pro Bowlers and All-Pros last year). Seymour doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
Smart teams don’t make a habit of giving away great players, but the Pats felt they either trade Seymour now and get a first round pick, or let him play out his contract and lose him for nothing. Richard is in the last year of his contract and would be an unrestricted free agent.
The other problem is the list of players in their last year of their contracts. New England hasn’t negotiated with NT Vince Wilfork, DE Jarvis Green will expire next year as well, and QB Tom Brady will be due an extension soon. Thanks to recent extensions signed by New York Giants’s Eli Manning (six years $97.5 million) and San Diego’s Philip Rivers ($92 million), Brady’s price tag went way up.
The effect Seymour’s trade will have on New England could be too much of a loss for a team with championship aspirations. It could take up to three players to replace what Seymour did on the field: Green starts, rookie Ron Brace comes in on run downs, and Mike Wright could be utilized on passing downs.
As for making up for the eight sacks lost, a combination of defensive ends/linebackers must step up. Derrick Burgess and Tully Banta-Cain will play situational roles as designated pass rushers. Based on their preseason that produced one sack between them, a meager pass rush last year could become meek this year.
And if the Patriots can’t get to the quarterback, it will be another year of the secondary being victimized. New England did a great job turning over a secondary that gave up 27 touchdown passes last year, tied for second most allowed. But without a consistent pass rush, opposing quarterbacks will have all day to pick apart the defense.
It will catch up to New England. Games against offensive powers like Atlanta, New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Houston got a lot harder. Even if the Patriots reach the AFC Championship, they don’t appear to have the team to go after Pittsburgh’s weakness: generous offensive line.
That’s if the Pats get that far. New England was a legitimate Super Bowl contender entering the preseason. With their season opener just days away, the odds went from very possible to doubtful.
Randolph Charlotin writes a New England Patriots blog at www.randolphc.com. And questions or comments can be sent to talktome@randolphc.com.
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3 comments
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Hey RandolphC... get your picks in for week 1...
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First off, thanks for being a regular reader of mine. I really appreciate that. It means a lot. While I do trust Belichick, I do have the right to disagree. I understand the move, and I begrudgingly admit it's the right move from a business standpoint. But for a fan that's more interested in winning, I hate the trade. It makes me think when Bill traded Deion Branch and left the team with Reche Caldwell. That didn't turn out well for the team that year. I don't forgive him for dropping that wide open pass in the AFC Championship with his eyes opened wide like dinner plates after the play.
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I love counting on this column for my Pats news!! What about "In Bill We Trust?" You know the Pats put a value on every player, and refuse to over pay, this way, Seymour does not walk away for nothing. The Pats could always trade the draft pic to fill any need that comes up from the loss of Seymour.