NBA Finals: The Breakdown
Written by Benn Hodapp, Thursday June 04 2009
As I struggle to come to terms with the fact that as a sports writer I have to remain as unbiased as possible, I realize that I need to put in my analysis of the NBA Finals despite my undying, white hot hatred of the Lakers.
Feel free to call bullcrap (or worse) at any or all of my breakdowns, but this is me at my objective best when it comes to the hellish, ugly nuisance on the earth that is the yellow-clad bastards from SoCal.
Despite what you hear on ESPN, there is actually another team in the series. I'm surprised they haven't simply changed their logo to "We <3 L.A." I, too, am shocked that we don't have a Cavs-Lakers Finals, seeing as how the NBA has tried all year to make it a reality. Unfortunately, despite the officials' best efforts, not even LeBron can beat an entire team that includes Dwight Howard.
The first thing we need to know is that the Magic beat the Lakers 2-0 in the regular season. Do the regular season matchups guarantee that the series will go as such? Absolutely not, but you cannot dismiss the Magic before Game 1.
In the first meeting (a 106-103 Magic win in Orlando on Dec. 20), the Magic did exactly what they need to do in order to be competitive in the Finals. They made 12 3s, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu combined for 36 points and Dwight Howard shot a terrific (for him) 10-15 from the line. They held the Lakers frontline of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum to just 14 points while allowing Kobe (41) to try and do it alone. He couldn't.
In the second game (109-103 in L.A. on Jan. 16) Howard went ballistic for 25 and 20 and the secondary stars did their jobs. Bryant had a triple double in the game (28/13/11) and got pretty decent help from the supporting cast, but Jameer Nelson held the key to both victories.
Therein lies the rub for Orlando.
Nelson is reportedly going to be activated for the Finals, but we still don't know if, how much, or how well he will play. In the wins Nelson played ridiculous basketball. His averages of 27.5/5.0/6.5 in the games made the two victories possible.
The Magic made a great acquisition by ripping Rafer Alston from the Rockets after Nelson's (at the time) season-ending shoulder injury. He has filled in admirably, but no one will ever mistake him for a big-time player.
The reality is that the Magic have gotten used to playing without Nelson and they have survived three rounds of playoffs without him. If he comes back and provides a boost then it's all gravy and considerably strengthens the Magic's chances in the series. If not, the uphill battle can still be won when you have the disturbingly broad shoulders and heroic, flowing red cape of Howard to cling to.
Magic keys to victory
The 3-point line
They make no qualms about what they are going to do in regards to the long distance shot. They take many and make many. Well, at least they do when they win. Turkoglu (who has been miserable lately) along with Lewis, Alston, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee and even JJ Redick will have to hit the bottom with consistency.
Stopping the 'other' lakers
Don't even worry about Kobe. You aren't going to stop him. I don't care if he averages 55, stop the other guys. Derek Fisher becomes absolutely worthless when covered. But leave him open in the corner and guess what...he's going to kill you. Put Howard on Gasol and see how many of his little wuss layups he makes in the series. My money is on 0-5. Just get a body on Bynum because he can't dominate anyone anyway. Have Pietrus go 1-on-1 with Bryant. Will he win that battle? Of course not. But maybe he can force some tough shots that will result in endless Howard rebounds.
Don't go Cavalier at the beginning of games
The Magic made a habit of falling behind by 15-20 points against the Cavs and then relying on huge turnarounds to win games. Do not do this. The Lakers have more than one guy who can actually play. They will not go eight minutes without scoring like the Cavs often did.
Dwight at the stripe
I would mention that they need Howard to stay out of foul trouble, but the guy gets absolutely no respect and will probably foul out guarding Sun Yue. So instead I will focus on Howard himself at the line. He will never shoot 80 percent for an extended period, but if he can stay around 66-70 rather than 55-60 it will make a huge difference. It will add roughly four points per game to the Magic's total. There is a huge difference between 6-15 and 10-15.
As for the Lakers, this is not just a cake walk title. That's what most people thought when the Mavs got the Heat a few years back. That's what most people thought when the Lakers got the Pistons before that.
With that said, the Lakers are (and should be) the favorites. They have the better all-around team. They have the guy who can score at any time and can take over games in the final minutes like no one else. People often argue with me that I don't give Bryant enough credit. That is patently untrue. I have never underestimated his greatness as a basketball player. My hatred for him comes from his vile, cancerous arrogance and his general treatment of people.
The Lakers were healthy in both games against the Magic in the regular season, but they have a decided advantage now with the absence of Nelson. The backcourt of Fisher, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic hardly strikes fear into the hearts of opponents, but if too much attention is paid elsewhere, they can hit big shots.
Lakers keys to victory
Much ado about Howard
What do you do with this guy? I don't really know. No one on the Lakers (or anywhere else) is as strong as he is and it seems that you kind of have to resign yourself to him getting 22 and 15 at minimum. If Bynum can do anything to slow down Howard (or at least make it somewhere even in the neighborhood of even) then they will be in great shape.
Guarding the 3
If they double team Howard in the paint or get broken down by penetration, guys like Lewis and Turkoglu and Pietrus are going to take aim from deep and make a large number of them. There is no need to double anyone on this team. Howard isn't known as a passer, but he can certainly hit No. 9 in the chest for a wide open 3. If they get trapped in situations where they have to run out at shooters, this could be a long series.
Kobe deciding he needs help
Despite his undeniable greatness, Bryant has a long history of forgetting he has teammates. In a rough patch it is not uncommon to see him go 1-on-5 to try and get going. Sometimes it works, but against a good team like the Magic it will not. These aren't the Timberwolves.
Is Lamar Odom feeling up to playing?
This guy is one of the biggest mysteries in recent years. Not just in the NBA but in all of sports. His talent is undeniable. He has point guard skills as a 3/4 and can rebound and score when he's going right. However, he absolutely disappears for weeks at a time. Sometimes you see him and wonder who he isn't averaging 20 and 12, while others you wonder why he's even on the floor. The disgusting feature I saw on him the other day about how much sugar he eats was soul-crushingly awful, but if it takes a dumptruck full of Pixy Stix to get his ass moving then I suggest Phil gets on the phone to make it happen.
I have heard anything from a Lakers sweep to a six-game slugfest. I tend to lean more towards the second option. I think the Lakers are the better team, but I thought that last year going into the Finals. Just to be an anarchist I'll go with the Magic in 6. I think they can do it.
Fear not, Lakers fans. While your allegiance to such a heartless group of individuals makes you terrible people, my picking the Magic all but guarantees a Laker victory.
It's my gift to you.
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2 comments
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Well they def sucked in game one. Sad day in Orlando people.
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Benn, you better watch out or you'll get accused of being too negative like me. I enjoyed you calling the Lakers fans terrible people. And don't forget that Kobe was accused of raping a girl until that went away (wink, wink, monetary payoff, cough, cough). I'm not sure what I liked better the "Wussy little layups" line or the "Dumptruck full of Pixiestix to get his ass moving" line. Nice work.