High School or College? Which degree carries the most weight in the NBA?
Written by Luke, Monday May 18 2009
Every year with the end of basketball season and the upcoming NBA draft, as well as high school seniors looking at colleges there’s talk of players that may or may not have the talent to jump straight from the prep scene to the NBA. Only recently was this jump made impossible by the current collective bargaining agreement, as th e 2005 draft was the last to include high schoolers. This year as we near the draft 18 year old prospect Ricky Rubio has sparked my interest in that, were he born in the US he would not be allowed to enter the draft however as he’s from Spain he will likely be drafted this year in the top 10, and possibly even the top 5.
The argument that many make to keep high schoolers from jumping to the NBA is that when you’re right out of high school you’re simply not ready. It is said that players need the years in college to develop their games to an NBA level, and that the amazingly successful players that have jumped from high school to the NBA are the exception, not the rule. Given all of this controversy, I decided to do a little study, and see what the truth is. Here are my findings:
First, let me outline my study. I looked at career numbers for players that jumped from high school to the NBA, and the same numbers for players who attended 5 major college programs throughout the country (Duke, UNC,
Now, below is a chart averaging career averages of players who have attended one of the schools listed above or came straight from high school. The criteria was simple, they either attended one of these schools or came straight from high school, and they played at least one minute professionally. I realize that from each school and among those that graduated high school and skipped college prior to their NBA career, there are many who simply don’t ever play and I’ll be taking a look at that after this.
|
|
Pts |
TRB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
|
High School |
10.7068 |
5.11136 |
1.664 |
0.665 |
0.82 |
|
Duke |
8.67391 |
3.70217 |
1.9 |
0.706 |
0.47 |
|
UNC |
9.73621 |
3.6807 |
2.134 |
1.094 |
0.6 |
|
UCLA |
7.96912 |
3.675 |
1.903 |
0.745 |
0.61 |
|
|
7.92308 |
4.11282 |
1.628 |
0.584 |
0.45 |
|
|
8.46078 |
3.60612 |
1.927 |
0.956 |
0.48 |
As you can see, those who skipped college average more points, rebounds, and blocks per game than any of those who were a part of any of these five premier programs. Now this is not really the whole story many will cite examples such as Ricky Sanchez, who was selected 35th overall in 2005 as an example of exactly why you shouldn’t select a high schooler in the draft. Others will say that for every Kobe Bryant or Lebron James there are ten that won’t make the league. While that’s true in general about the NBA, it’s not true about those who have officially declared for the draft. Well, how about instead of telling you I show you? Below is a chart showing how many players the NBA has on record to have declared for the draft but have never laced up their sneakers and played minutes in a professional game:
|
|
Didn't Make it |
Total Declared |
% |
|
|
40 |
91 |
0.43956044 |
|
|
29 |
69 |
0.420289855 |
|
Duke |
27 |
73 |
0.369863014 |
|
UNC |
36 |
94 |
0.382978723 |
|
UCLA |
32 |
101 |
0.316831683 |
|
High School |
7 |
53 |
0.132075472 |
Now, as you can clearly see the rate of utter failure in the league is more than three times as high if you played college ball at Kentucky than if you skipped college altogether. In fact the best chance of success seems to be jumping from high school to the NBA, the second best route being UCLA historically as there is only a 31% failure rate vs. the 13% failure rate with those that jumped directly from high school.
Overall I simply don’t see the argument for going to college vs. jumping straight to the NBA. The statistics going as far back as the 1940’s show that if you have the skills, you should make the jump. I’ve heard additional arguments that say that coaches don’t have the proper amount of time to scout a player if they jump from high school however my study shows that they seem to do a fine job scouting overall. With examples like Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, and Kevin Garnett it’s hard to argue with not drafting a player of such incredible skill right out of high school, and also hard to make the argument that they need the experience in college. Although it should be noted that
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