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Eagles-Cowboys Preview: Another Lump of Coal?

B-Dub Written by B-Dub, Friday December 23 2011
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This game could actually mean nothing by the time they kick off at 4:15 on Christmas Eve.  That's because if the New York Giants beat the New York Jets in the early game, the Eagles will officially be eliminated from the playoffs.  Heck, if the Giants win, this game won't even matter to the Cowboys since the Boys and G-men play next week and the winner of that game wins the division.

With that little lump of coal thrown into the Christmas stocking, let's take a look at the matchup, assuming these two teams will care.

The Eagles thumped the Cowboys at home in October by a score of 34-7.  The Eagles got out to a 24-0 halftime lead and completely took the Cowboys out of their offense.  The Eagles had the ball an unbelievable 42 minutes and it is the only game the entire season where they didn't turn the ball over.  Since the Eagles lead the NFL in turnovers and only the Washington Redskins have a worse turnover differential in the entire NFL, that's a significant stat.

If the Eagles hope to make it a season sweep over the Cowboys, Michael Vick will have to take better care of the ball than he has all season.  His 13 interceptions and three lost fumbles help explain why the Eagles are 6-8 in spite of out-gaining their opponents by 1,027 yards this season.  Vick looked healthy last week against the Jets and he has had another week for his ribs to heal.  We'll see if Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan does a better job this time around trying to confuse Vick.

Dallas NT Jay Ratliff is a beast in the middle, so even though center Jason Kelce is having a surprisingly good season, he could be in for a long day.  The Cowboys pass rush comes from Demarcus Ware, who is third in the NFL in sacks (16).  If the Eagles tackles, Jason Peters and Todd Herremans can keep the edge rushers off Vick, he'll have a chance to find his speedy receivers.

The Cowboys definitely went into the first matchup with the idea of containing DeSean Jackson by keeping a safety over the top on him all game.  That really opened things up over the middle for TE Brent Celek, who caught 7 passes for 94 yards in the first game.  But Sean Lee was injured during that game and he is back to cover Celek this time.  The Cowboys have three good corners in Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick, but they can be beat, as evidenced by the Cowboys being ranked 19th against the pass.    

In the first matchup LeSean McCoy carried an astounding 30 times for a career-high 185 yards.  Being up early explains that, but the Cowboys are ranked a sturdy 7th against the run.  McCoy won't approach 200 yards again, but the NFL's TD leader should certainly have another good game.  You know, unless Andy Reid forgets to use him again.

Most NFL fans think of Tony Romo as a quarterback who is prone to turnovers.  While that was true before, it isn't the case anymore.  Romo has thrown 18 TD passes and only two interceptions in the last seven games.  He is also one of only four quarterbacks in the NFL with a passer rating of over 100 for the season.  The other four?  Just a couple guys named Rodgers, Brees and Brady.

Romo also has the mobility to get away from the Eagles pass rush, led by NFL sack leader, Jason Babin.  The Cowboys have given up 30 sacks on the season, but only 8 sacks at home.  The will need to give Romo time to find his receivers because the Eagles have a major injury that the Cowboys will try to exploit.

Cornerback Asante Samuel has been ruled out of the game and will be replaced by the unpredictable Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  Nnamdi Asomugha has been less than advertised so far this season and the Cowboys have four dangers receivers.  Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson are all big and fast, and have a combined 24 TDs.  That is bad news for an Eagles defense that is the second worst in the red-zone and is a lowly 19th in scoring allowed.  If the Eagles have to use a safety to help with those receivers that will open up the middle of the field for the Cowboys best receiver, TE Jason Witten.  Witten against the Eagles linebackers is an epic mismatch.
 
The Cowboys didn't run the ball very much in the first game because they got behind so quickly.  Still, DeMarco Murray gained 74 yards on only 8 carries, for a beefy 9.3 average.  Luckily for the Eagles, Murray is out for the year.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, his replacement, Felix Jones is coming into this game off back-to-back 100 yard rushing performances.  The Cowboys would be wise to run out of three WR sets to get the Eagles in their nickel package.  Then they could run delayed hand-offs when the Eagles defensive ends are ten yards up-field going for the sack, opening gaping holes in the line.  Or they can just line up and pound the ball right at the Eagles undersized defensive front like so many other teams have done this season.  In spite of the Eagles recent improvements against the run, they are still only ranked 17th.

The Eagles special teams were playing well in coverage, but they have turned the ball over twice in the return game and had a punt blocked in the last two weeks.  One of these days, that will cost them a game.  You know, like the rookie kicker's two misses did against the San Francisco 49ers.  Speaking of which, did you know that the 49ers kicker is leading the NFL in scoring and is on pace to break the team's all-time scoring record for a season, currently held by Jerry Rice?  That kicker would be ex-Eagle David Akers.  Good job as always with the personnel moves Andy.  Dez Bryant isn't having a great season as a returner, but he is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.  Dallas kicker Dan Bailey has made 32 of 36 FG attempts, including five of 48 yards or longer.

Dallas coach Jason Garrett cost his team a game when he actually iced his own kicker early this season.  Andy Reid is in his 13th Super Bowl-less season of driving me crazy on the Eagles sidelines.  Let's call this one a push due to extreme incompetence.

Another thing to consider about that first matchup is that the Eagles were coming off a bye.  The Eagles are 13-0 after the bye under Reid.  That extra week allows Reid and his staff to throw in a few wrinkles that the other team has never seen before.  This is actually a short week with the Saturday game, so there will be no surprises.

The two teams are pretty evenly matched, so I think it will come down to which team minimizes the turnovers.  Unfortunately for Eagles fans, that does not favor the team in green.

Cowboys 30 - Eagles 24

 


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