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Chargers/Broncos preview: Haven’t I seen this movie before?

Boltmaster Written by Boltmaster, Friday November 20 2009
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Wait, I know this sounds familiar. This is the one where two teams are battling for a division title right? One of them gets off to a fast start, their players start to get cocky, their fans get mouthy and everyone on TV picks them as the feel-good story of the year and the sleeper favorite to win the Super Bowl. Then everything falls apart and the season ends with disastrous losses and they miss the playoffs. Conversely, the other team sputters out of the gate, they drop some games early and it looks like the season is lost. Then the coaches make some adjustments, they win a few games, the players get confidence and they go on a late season run and enter the playoffs playing their best football. Sound familiar? Welcome to the AFC West Part 3. For the third year in a row the Broncos are on the precipice of a late-season collapse whereas the Chargers seem to be rebounding after another disappointing start. The only change in the script for this sequel seems to be that the collapse came earlier than expected this year.

On Sunday the Chargers go into Denver riding a 4-game win streak whereas the Broncos are in the midst of a 3-game slide. The argument can be made that this is one of the most important matchups of the weekend because it will basically decide who wins the division. If the Bolts win, they will have sole possession of first place in the AFC West with Kansas City and Cleveland as their next two opponents. That means that they could very easily be sitting at 9-3 going into December. As an interesting little side note – Norv Turner’s record with the Chargers is 9-0 for the month of December over the last 2 years. If Denver loses that means they will have dropped 4 in a row after a 6-0 start. Now 6-4 is not a bad record and a lot of teams out there would be happy to be at that point after 10 weeks of football (Oakland, St. Louis, etc….) The problem is that if they lose on Sunday the media will start to pile on them even more, they will be labeled as chokers and they’ll hear incessantly about past collapses. Plus they will still have to face the Giants, Eagles and Colts before the season ends.

 

So getting back to this Sunday’s game, how will this one play out? I think the most important factor will be the status of Kyle Orton’s ankle. If he’s able to play, I give Denver a shot. Despite their recent losses, they are still a good team, they will be at home and they already beat the Chargers once this year. However if Orton can’t play and Chris Simms gets the start, it’s going to get ugly. Another interesting side note – Simms’ passer rating in the Redskins loss was a 7.5. That’s not a typo by the way – that is a single digit passer rating. That is like a Rex Grossman number. Add to that the fact that the Chargers’ pass rush has come alive in recent weeks….well my spleen hurts just thinking about that. But what about Denver’s impressive defense that stifled the Chargers in their earlier meeting? I’ll acknowledge that they outplayed the Chargers when they met in October. They pressured Philip Rivers into bad throws and kept LT and Sproles in check. However a team that limited opponents to a total of 43 points in the first 5 weeks has now given up 30, 28 and 27 points in their last three games. When the season started, nobody knew what to expect of Mike Nolan’s defense and they caught a lot of teams off guard with their blitzes and packages. After 9 weeks of football, everyone has studied the tapes, pinpointed weaknesses and found ways to exploit them.

 

There’s still a lot of football to be played this season and nothing is a given in the NFL. Even if the Chargers win on Sunday they still have some hurdles to face before the season ends. But movies tend to follow formulas and I think we all know how this one will end.


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Greg ShelleyGreg Shelley, over 2 years ago said:

Good article. Apparently some teams have already figured out that if you stop the run game for Denver and force the QB (either one) to try and win the game with his skills, then Denver cannot win. That's not a difficult formula. And, apparently, that Denver defense is not nearly as good as they looked early on, as Washington demonstrated. I rarely ever say this, but "Go Chargers!"