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Can the Phillies Bounce Back in 2012?

B-Dub Written by B-Dub, Monday February 20 2012
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The Phillies endured their fair share of injuries last season and still managed to win a Major League best 102 games.  

Starting pitcher Joe Blanton was limited to 41 1/3 innings.  Roy Oswalt missed a good portion of the second half with a back injury.  Closer Brad Lidge started the season on the DL and only managed to throw 19 ineffective innings of middle relief when he returned.  His replacement, Jose Contreras only pitched 14 innings before he went down with a season-ending elbow injury.  Third baseman Placido Polanco played hurt all season and had hip and sports hernia surgeries after the worst season of his career.  And Chase Utley missed 59 games with an arthritic condition in his knee that had him start the season on the DL and not play up to his normal level of production when he got back on the field.

In spite of all that, the Phillies were the best team in baseball last season.  Well, until the playoffs started that is.

The Phillies were eliminated by the eventual World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs last year.  It marked the third year in a row that the Phillies have lost in the playoffs to the eventual Champion.

After winning the World Series in 2008, the Phillies lost to the New York Yankees in the 2009 World Series and lost to the San Francisco Giants in the 2010 NLCS before losing that first round series to the Cardinals last season.  

For those of you who didn't notice, that is quite the negative trend that the Phillies are working on there.  They have gone another step backwards in each of the last three seasons.  So does that mean that they will continue the trend and miss the playoffs in 2012?  I say no.

The Phillies are still the class of the National League, as I detailed in my "American League's Got Talent" article.  My opinion is backed up by the fact that the odds-makers have the Phillies listed as the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series again.  Of course, they were the favorites the last two years as well and failed to accomplish that feat.

The Phillies are down one "Ace" in Oswalt, but they still have the best top three of any rotation in baseball with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.  Last season's rookie sensation, Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) returns as the No. 4 starter and Blanton is said to be sufficiently recovered from his elbow issues of last season to fill the No. 5 spot.  If any of those starters goes down, they even have Kyle Kendrick, who had an 8-6 record with a 3.22 ERA last season, waiting in the wings.

They signed the best closer in the free agent market in Jonathan Papelbon and added veteran arms like Dontrelle Willis and Chad Qualls to round out the bullpen.  They also upgraded their bench with veteran hitters like Jim Thome, Juan Pierre, Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix.

Those bats should help reverse the negative power trend for the team in recent seasons.  The 153 home runs the Phillies hit in 2011 were their fewest since 2000 and a far cry from the 214 they hit in 2008 and the 224 they hit in 2009, when they led the league in homers.  Last season they were ranked eighth in home runs.

The only changes among the regulars from opening day last season are in right and left field.  Raul Ibanez is gone and John Mayberry Jr. will get the first shot to replace him in left.  Mayberry is improving against right-handed pitchers, but the team brought in Nix just in case they need to platoon those two in left.  Nix hit .250 last season, but was only .111 against lefties, while hitting .263 against righties.  He also hit all 16 of his home runs against right-handed pitchers.

The other change is in rightfield, where the team will have a full season of Hunter Pence.  In 54 games with the Phils, after his trade from Houston, Pence hit .324 with a .954 OPS (on base % + slugging %).

The main concern for the Phillies heading into this season is the health of Ryan Howard.  When last we saw Howard, he was writhing in pain on the field at Citizens Bank Park after he made the last out of the NLDS against the Cardinals.  He ruptured his Achilles tendon and underwent offseason surgery.  The problem is that there is no set timetable for how long it takes athletes to fully recover from such injuries.  The most optimistic estimates have Howard back on the field in May, but the worst case scenario is that he won't be back to normal until 2013.

Until Howard comes back, Wigginton is expected to get the majority of the starts at first, with Thome getting a start or two a week if he is able.  You see, the 41-year-old Thome has only played 28 innings in the field since the Phillies traded him in 2005, to make room for Howard.  Mayberry has played first in the past, but manager Charlie Manuel wants Mayberry to concentrate on his hitting and playing leftfield.  Utley has also played first in the past, but he is the team's best option at second.   

Ultimately, I think the Phillies have the most talent of any team in the National League.  That is usually good enough to get a team to the playoffs.  It's just what you do when you get there that really counts.

A lot has been made of the Phillies hitting failures last season, but the truth is that it isn't as bad as it was made out to be.  The Phillies actually scored more runs than any other team in the NL in the second half of the season, when they had Pence in the lineup for 54 of those last 81 games.  The problem is that once again they didn't hit in the playoffs.

As a matter of fact, in their last five postseason series, the Phillies have batted .231, .227, .212, .216 and .226.  That right there explains why they haven't won the World Series in the last three seasons.  The Phillies certainly have the pitching to win it all.  They just need their offense to come through in the clutch.  

Spring Training has started and soon enough the 162-game marathon that is the Major League Baseball season will begin.  I think the Phillies will win their sixth straight NL East Division title and then we'll see whether or not these offseason changes will make a difference when it really counts.
 


Tags:  Brad Lidge, Charlie Manuel, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jim Thome, Jonathan Papelbon, Major League Baseball, MLB, New York Yankees, NLCS, Philadelphia Phillies, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Howard, San Francsico Giants, Spring Training, St Louis Cardinals, World Series



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