An unbiased look at the SEC Championship
Written by Benn Hodapp, Friday December 04 2009
There has been a lot of talk about what Florida needs to do to put a harness on the Alabama running game led by Heisman candidate Mark Ingram. As there should be. It will especially interesting to see how Ingram bounces back from a horrible performance against Auburn last week as well as a nagging injury.
But what hasn't really been talked about is the running game of the Gators. To listen to the guys on ESPN you would think that Florida has no running game and that the SEC Championship will be decided by whether or not Florida stops Bama. Not so fast.
Here's a stat for you:
Rush Yards Per Game (national rank)
Florida – 236.7 (6)
Alabama – 212.9 (13)
Florida boasts four rushers with more than 300 yards, which means you can't just zero in on Tim Tebow and Jeffery Demps and expect to stop them completely. Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody can do it too.
For Alabama it is Ingram (1,429) and then a huge drop-off to Trent Richardson (560). Richardson is certainly a good player (he has six touchdowns this year) but if Ingram isn't fully-healed it could be a really long day for the Tide.
Neither team throws the ball with great efficiency or effectiveness, but the pass will play a part in the game. Florida is usually good for a trick play or two, so watch for that to be a factor whether it's an end around or a halfback pass. Tebow may not have an NFL arm (in fact he doesn't), but just when you think he's just a runner he uncorks one about 60 yards that often changes a game.
The difference in the game is going to be each team's defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see neither team get into the 20s.
More stats:
Rush Yards Against Per game (national rank)
Florida – 89.9 (8)
Alabama – 78.5 (2)
Unfortunately for Florida, Carlos Dunlap decided to get his drink and drive on, so he is unavailable for the game. His absence will be felt more on the pass rushing side of the game though. His 7.5 sacks have him near the top in the category nationally.
Both teams average better than 30 points per contest (Florida 36.5, Alabama 31.7) but I don't expect either team to approach those numbers. If this game is mutually in the 30s I will eat my hat. Florida and Alabama rank first and third in total defense respectively, so don't be surprised if this game is more pound than it is flash.
Prediction
Florida has been unimpressive at times this year, just squeaking out wins over Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Of all the teams in the BCS discussion I would argue that they have the least impressive resume in terms of opponents. They played only one team that was ranked in the top 25 at the time of their game (13-3 over No. 15 LSU), but they always came out on top. There is something to be said for a team that can play below its abilities and yet still always does enough to win.
Alabama only played two teams that were any good, but they too won the games. They looked pretty beatable against a pretty mediocre Auburn team last week, but those teams hate each other so much that you can pretty much throw out records before it even starts. They had a couple close calls as well (12-10 over Tennessee, 24-15 over LSU, 26-21 over Auburn), but undefeated is undefeated.
I think the difference will be who can cause more turnovers and make the bigger plays. No team has made more big plays the last three years than Florida. I'll take them to win a defensive slugfest with the help of one or two explosive plays at just the right time.
Florida 16
Alabama 13
Tags:
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10 comments
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Texas will get in because the BCS is all about greed. Texas is the biggest program with the largest following and would bring in the most cash. Over-ruling the final play was a joke. I've seen so many times when the clock was butchered more than that. One second? You think someone with a little bit of clout had something to do with that?
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This whole stupid debate is EXACTLY why college football needs a playoff system. Then ALL of these teams could compete and we would actually get to find out which one is the best on the field, not in the minds of a totally corrupt organization like the BCS.
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Texas will still get in mainly because they got screwed last year. It'll be close, but Texas will get in over TCU.
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After the way Texas played tonight, I would not be surprised at all if TCU got in. They have blown out every opponent except one. Texas did not look good tonight! The BCS just may surprise us with the best two teams. IT might even be Boise St or Cincinnati too. All three of those teams deserve it more then Texas at this point.
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Texas wasn't impressive, but more then likely it's going to be UT and Alabama. I'll even say this, TCU probably deserves to be ahead of Texas.
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still think Texas is one of the best two teams in the country? cuz i think TCU would fuck them up.
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One of these days you going to get tired of me being RIGHT all the damn time. LOL RTR fellows!
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Congrats to Bamababe, I guess. At least I was right about the SEC being a complete FRAUD of a conference. Alabama STILL hasn't played a good team all year.
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I said 32-13 Alabama, right? Oh. Well damn.
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The SEC sucks this year. These are the only two teams in the whole conference that are any good at all. No wonder they've run the table against the joke schedules they've played. We need a playoff system in college football so frauds like this can be exposed.