Dunkirk: Not a Losing Battle
Written by Daniel Turner, Friday May 01 2009
The French beach town has been the site of three major battles in world history. Each time it looked like the victor of the war would be the vanquished at the battle. It just goes to show that you have to be willing to play the long shot. That’s never truer than when it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby.
As the Run for the Roses prepares to commence for the 135th time the odds on favorite is I Want Revenge. The horse is carrying 3-1 odds and has practically been given the rose shaped horseshoe to wear while David Lanzman and company sip champagne. However, as those who served at Dunkirk can attest things don’t always go according to plan and when you have a field of 20 horses thundering around a track anything can happen.
At 13, I Want Revenge is close to the middle of the field while another favorite, Pioneer of the Nile is 16th. I Want Revenge will go to the head of the pack, so the positioning is in its favor. Pioneer may prefer to sit in the pack for a bit, so its post could also prove fortuitous. Of course all of that is predicated on traffic and the patterns of the other horses.
Dunkirk will post 15 and is drawing attention as the dark horse. So much so that odds currently stand at 4-1 for the son of Unbridled Son’s. Dunkirk placed at the Florida Derby and since there are no head to head comparisons to be made with Pioneer or Revenge it is hard to say how it matches up against these competitors.
Although Dunkirk is light on experience, only three races, it has two wins and a ton of talent. Pre race workouts have been so impressive that many started to pick Dunkirk to finish in the money. While most are seeing place or show, the talent displayed and the lack of intimate knowledge by the other riders could allow Dunkirk to take the whole enchilada.
The nature of this horse suggests upset possibility and a better payoff for those willing to wager. Playing the favorites is always a safe bet and at the Kentucky Derby it is downright boring. Just remember, the Germans would have put a ton of Deutsche Marks on their chances of winning WW2 after watching the British sail away from Dunkirk. I don’t have to tell you that they were wrong.
The Godolphin Stables also have two horses that could change the wagering in the 135th running of the Derby. Godolphin is owned by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum the Vice President of the United Arab Emirates and the Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai. Maktoum embraces his Bedouin culture and heritage. Central to that lifestyle is a deep appreciation for horses. Godolphin is named after the Arabian strain of horses that is one of the triumvirates that makes up the modern thoroughbred. The Stable has two facilities; Al Quoz stables in Dubai and Moulton Paddocks in Newmarket, England. The mild weather in Dubai makes Al Quoz an excellent facility for year round training. Their impact in racing is international as they compete throughout the world.
Regal Ransom and Desert Party are their entrants in the Derby. In a head to head meeting at the UAE Dubai Derby Regal Ransom bested the stable mate and may be far better than the 30-1 odds being offered. Regal Ransom is posted 10th and Alan Garcia is the jockey aboard. In 2008, the two year old Regal Ransom brought home $675.000.00 for the Sheikh’s coffers. Garcia was the jockey when Regal Ransom got revenge for an earlier loss to his stable mate at the Dubai Derby.
Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor was impressed by the pairs Churchill Downs workout and proclaimed them fit, happy and ready to compete for the Derby crown.
While Desert Party brought home less money than his mate $425,000.00 is still a nice bundle of cash. Desert Party can run as his four and ¾ lengths win over Regal Ransom at UAE Guineas proved. Desert Party passed Regal Ransom at the final furlough. He was posted fourth at that race and will be 19th at the Derby. The Godolphin opinion is that Desert Party has a big heart and is highly competitive.
Having explosive power at the end could be a factor in the horse finishing in the money in Kentucky. Currently, Desert Party is on the board at 15-1. Although the odds are closer with Desert Party remember Regal Ransom bested him the last time they ran, so he has shown continuing progress in his campaign for the Triple Crown.
Chocolate Candy is a long shot that has been making quite a reputation on the west coast. In California Chocolate Candy won the California Derby in January, also tasted victory in the El Camino Real Derby and finished second at the tune up Santa Anita Derby. In his Churchill Downs workout Chocolate Candy trailed only stable mate Friesen Fire for the fastest time around the track. Chocolate Candy clocked in at :59 1/5 to Friesen Fire’s :57 4/5. Mike Smith is the jockey atop the 20-1 Chocolate Candy. His second place finish at Santa Anita saw Pioneer of the Nile claim the victory.
If Chocolate Candy has a weakness it is that he has run solely on synthetic surfaces. However, the fast workout time shows that the horse adjusts quickly to the track at Churchill Downs. Chocolate Candy may bring in some local faithful since he was bred in the Bluegrass State. He was produced from Seattle Slew mare Crownette. Chocolate Candy is posted in 11th and will be running from the middle of the pack in its maiden race on dirt. Trainer Jerry Hollander has been impressed with Chocolate Candy’s time on the Kentucky dirt and believes he is ready to make the move off of synthetic. If Chocolate Candy doesn’t melt under pressure he could generate some sweet returns on the tote board.
Photo Credit: Travis Mathews / Icon SMI
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