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2011 American League East Preview

B-Dub Written by B-Dub, Monday March 14 2011
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There is no denying that the American League East is the glamour division in Major League Baseball and maybe even in all of sports.  With the Steinbrenner money and the rabid fans of Red Sox Nation, there is never a shortage of story lines in this division.  With that being said, let's take a look at each team in my projected order of their finish in the 2011 season.

Boston Red Sox

Third place finishes like the one the team had in 2010, just won't cut it in Beantown.  The Red Sox had a rash of injuries last season and still won 89 games.  Former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia missed over half the season and Jacoby Ellsbury only played in 18 games last season.  Both are healthy again and will be joined on the team by two new MVP candidates.  The Sox traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez and signed the No. 1 free agent this past offseason, in OF Carl Crawford.  Moving from spacious Petco Field and the light-hitting Padres lineup to Fenway Park and a stacked Red Sox team might just be the ticket to elevate Gonzalez to super-star status.  Crawford's signing not only strengthened the Sox, but decimated Tampa Bay.  Crawford will be the table-setter for what figures to be the most potent offense in baseball this season.

The Red Sox pitching was a mixed bag in 2010.  Youngsters Jon Lester (3.25 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (2.33 ERA) had breakout seasons with 17 and 19 wins respectively, but it was offset by the worst season of Josh Beckett's career.  A bad back can be blamed for his 5.78 ERA and lowly 6-6 record, but backs are a tricky thing.  Who knows if Beckett will be healthy again in 2011.  The rotation is rounded out by John Lackey and the most overrated player in MLB, Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Closer Jonathan Papelbon has the reputation, but his performance slipped noticeably last season.  Although his save total stayed almost the same, his ERA rose from 1.85 to 3.90 from 2010 to 2011.  He also lost seven games and blew eight saves last season.

The Red Sox will have a good rotation and if Papelbon falters they have closer-in-waiting, Daniel Bard ready to step in.  Plus, with a lineup that should easily lead MLB in runs scored, they won't have to win with pitching.  The Sox should represent the AL in the World Series.

New York Yankees

As long as a Steinbrenner owns the Yankees, they will have the highest payroll in baseball.  Unfortunately for the Bronx Bombers, all of their cash couldn't deliver their No. 1 target in free agency, Cliff Lee.  With Lee in Philadelphia and Andy Pettitte retired, the Yankees rotation suddenly looks less than stellar.  C.C Sabathia is a perennial CY Young contender and is a true ace.  Phil Hughes had his coming out party last season with 18 wins, but those wins came with a 4.19 ERA.  A.J. Burnett hasn't had an ERA under 3.75 since 2005.  And the fact that this team is even considering ancient retreads, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon for their last two spots in the rotation is bad news.  Mariano Rivera is one of the best closers ever and looked better than ever last season.  If Father Time ever does catch up to Mo, the Yanks signed former Rays closer Rafael Soriano (45 saves last season).

When you think New York Yankees these days, you think of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.  But the best player on the Yankees last year was 2B Robinson Cano.  Cano had a career year in every offensive category and even added his first Gold Glove Award.  The all-star looks like the future of the Yankees lineup along with 1B Mark Teixeira.  But in the present, Jeter and A-Rod still look pretty formidable.

This team will not have any trouble scoring runs.  The questions are all on the pitching side in New York, but they should have enough to contend for the Wild Card.

Tampa Bay Rays

No team lost more talent during the offseason than Tampa Bay.  Crawford, Carlos Pena and closer Rafael Soriano left via free agency and the team traded SP Matt Garza.  Second-year pitcher Jeremy Hellickson moves into a rotation led by David Price, who started the All-Star game and finished second in the AL CY Young vote. After that though, the Rays have nothing but question marks.  

The offense will still be led by Evan Longoria, but the Rays must think this is 2004, not 2011.  How else do you explain them signing OF Johnny Damon and DH Manny Ramirez?  Both players are past their prime and who knows what "Manny being Manny" might do to this team.

The Rays can't compete financially with the big boys in the division, so they will try to rebuild around their youth.  Ultimately, losing all that talent will keep the Rays closer to the bottom of this division than the top in 2011.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are in full rebuilding mode after the trade of Roy Halladay before last season and the trade of Vernon Wells this past offseason.    Toronto will even have a rookie manager this season trying to grow with the young squad.

The rotation is led by promising young pitchers Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow.  The Jays would also love for the centerpiece of the Halladay trade, Kyle Drabek, to make the roster as well.  The Jays also added closers Frank Francisco and Joe Rauch to a bullpen that was dominant in 2010.

The Jays will rely on a small-ball approach after losing C John Buck and trading Wells.  Rookie J.P. Arencibia is the new catcher, but he can't be expected to provide the missing power.  Speaking of power, nobody had more HRs in MLB than Jose Bautista in 2010.  Of course, before he hit 54 HRs last year, Bautista had hit a total of 59 HRs during his entire career.  Expecting a repeat of last year's numbers might be asking a bit much.  It's also asking a bit much for the Jays to compete in the AL East this season.  The team was 8 games over .500 last year and still finished in fourth place.  Expect a repeat finish in 2011.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles made a lot of changes this offseason, but the question is whether or not they are better because of them.  I don't think so.

The additions of 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Mark Reynolds will certainly help a team that had zero players with at least 80 RBIs last year, but that's not saying much.  Reynolds hit a paltry .198 last season and strikes out over 200 times every year.  Adding more aging veterans like JJ Hardy and Vladimir Guerrero to established 30+ year-olds like 2B Brian Roberts might not be the best idea in this division.  Even catcher Matt Weiters has been a huge disappointment after being hyped by Baseball America as the No. 1 prospect in baseball in 2009.

The pitching staff is young and they are expected to take their lumps learning on the job at the big league level.  Pitchers like Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz show great promise, but they're not ready to lead a rotation just yet.  

Baltimore should just make a full commitment to a youth movement and dump all these aging vets at the trade deadline.  In this division they are sure to be out of contention by the All-Star Break, so that looks like a plausible scenario.    


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2 comments


0 up down 0
B-DubB-Dub, about 1 year ago said:

CC, the only reason I posted it under the Yankees was for John Hernandez. The poor guy knows his beloved Yankees aren't going to be very good this year, so I thought I would throw him a bone. By the way, I'm glad a Red Sox fan agrees with me about Dice-K. He had one good year and has been terrible otherwise.

1 up down 0
Christopher CorazonChristopher Corazon, about 1 year ago said:

The biggest change for the Orioles came when Buck Showalter took over, they were one of the hottest teams down the stretch. I think that might move them out of the cellar. ON THE SOX, right on about too much hype on Dice-K, I believe Lester was the ace...why did you file this with the "Bronxwire"